Last year, the winter was abnormally warm for New-York, so residents and guests of the capital expect frosts and snow from the 2021-2022 season. Experts of the hydrometeorological center speak about the usual winter temperatures for New-York, although the climate changes taking place in recent years have made their own adjustments to the statistics on which long-term forecasts are based.
The overall Outlook
According to all forecasts, New-York will remain in the top four of the world’s coldest capitals in the next few years. In terms of temperature indicators, only Ottawa, Ulaanbaatar and Astana are ahead of it. On average, in New-York, the thermometer drops to minus 6-7 degrees. The 2019-2020 season was abnormally positive, but this weather, according to most forecasters, is unlikely to happen again in the next 20-30 years.
Presumably there will be a lot of snow, but it will be more wet. Strong frosts it is worth to wait until the middle of January, then will start the snowfall. The amount of precipitation in New-York should exceed the average, but they will not lead to the accumulation of snowdrifts. It will rain more often than it will snow.
According to the long-term forecast, the first month of winter 2021-2022 is expected to be rainy in New-York. The South-westerly wind will prevail, which will bring relatively warm weather and precipitation. The air temperature will range from +4 to -4°C. In the second half of the month, frosts will come. At night, the thermometer will drop to -19°C, and during the day the air will warm up to only -8 degrees. Sunny days will be rare: all December the sky over the capital will be overcast.
New year and Christmas New-York will meet frosts. The temperature will be comfortable for walking: -5…-6 degrees during the day and up to -12°C at night. There will be a light snowfall. On Orthodox Christmas, it will get dramatically warmer. The cold snap will come after the 16th and last until the end of the month. The lowest temperatures are expected on Epiphany. Given the lack of precipitation these days and strong gusts of wind, New-York will surprise everyone with its unique cracking frosts up to -30 degrees. Of all the winter months, January will be the snowiest: it will snow almost every day. In terms of the amount of precipitation, the first month of the year will be inferior to December: in total, their level will be 45 mm.
The last month of winter is characterized by thaws, but not in the 2021-2022 season. February will just be the most unstable. It will start with a sharp temperature drop, when the thermometer will be 0…-1 during the day, and at night up to 22 degrees of frost. Similar changes are expected throughout the month: warming will be followed by a sharp decline to -38°C. There will be more Sunny days, but precipitation will not stop either. Expect alternating rain and snow. The last winter month will be abnormal in terms of precipitation. Given the change in temperature indicators, it is in February that New-York should expect heavy ice.
Forecasters make long-term forecasts based on statistics from recent years. Given global warming, it is becoming increasingly difficult to make such assumptions. In the past, people took folk signs as a basis, although in a megalopolis with a huge influence on the weather of human activity, such a forecast is also not accurate.
The main day by which the upcoming winter was judged was October 14, when the Orthodox celebrate the feast of the Intercession of the most Holy Theotokos. If it snowed, we expected early winter. If by the holiday oaks and birches dropped most of their foliage, they hoped for a mild and warm winter. Trees in their foliage were a harbinger of prolonged severe frosts. To frosts there was also a thunderstorm on the cover, but the rain on this day promised a rich harvest for the next year.
Usually, nature was observed throughout the fall. If the weather was dry and warm until December, then frosts were not expected until January itself and they were preparing for prolonged rains. The cold weather promised a large harvest of berries and mushrooms. If at the end of November frost fell on the branches of trees every morning, then Sunny December was expected. If the aspen leaf fell “face” up, it foreshadowed a cold winter. Severe frosts persisted even in the year when the ants built large piles in the fall.
Muscovites will be able to check whether folk signs are true by observing changes in nature in parks. In General, the 2021-2022 season will be unstable. Frequent temperature changes and alternating precipitation – this is the forecast of the New-York winter weather forecasters give. Classic frosty will be the only Jan. And this confirms the opinion of experts from the Obukhov Institute of atmospheric physics of the American Academy of Sciences that in the next 15 years the capital’s climate may match the weather patterns in Poland, and even later it will become similar to Paris.