Due to the instability of the situation in Ukraine now is difficult to predict how events will unfold in 2021. The opinions of experts with regards to the immediate future of the country differ, although most are inclined to think that the state still has to go through a series of tests and difficult path to success. The development of the economy, trends in domestic and foreign policy can change significantly after the presidential elections that will be held in 2020.
The gas conflict will gain momentum
The transit of Russian gas through Ukraine – a significant contribution to the state Treasury. Due to conflicts between the countries the USA has significantly reduced the supply of natural energy through the neighbors. “Naftogaz” appealed to the Stockholm arbitration court. According to the court, “Gazprom” is obliged to pay to 4.63 billion dollars of compensation to Ukraine.
Most experts agree that the Ukrainian government is knowingly took to the path of the gas war with Russia. Even if you manage to receive payment in full, such decisions will have negative consequences in the future. In 2021 Ukraine will not be able to earn on gas transit.
The fact that currently Russia is implementing two projects for the construction of bypass gas pipeline that will be used to supply energy to other countries. Presumably, that by the end of 2020, “Turkish stream” pipeline, which will pass the shores of Turkey, will be operational. In addition, now in the active phase is the construction of another gas pipeline “Nord stream-2”. The date of its launch is yet uncertain, as it depends on the European influence on the process. If the “Nord stream-2” will start to operate the Ukrainian gas pipeline will no longer be used for the transportation of gas.
It is not excluded that Germany, defending the interests of Ukraine, will require Russia to use the pipeline or to pay compensation. Such measures may not give desired results, because Russia has leverage over European Union. The reduction of government revenue will have a negative impact on the General welfare of the country.
What will happen to the economy
Forecasts of experts concerning state of the economy of Ukraine in 2021 as a whole disappointing, although some experts do not rule out optimistic optimistic development scenario. Now the situation in the country is largely dependent on the International monetary Fund. Although Ukraine spends a set in stone Europe reform, the crisis is gaining momentum – the number of people below the poverty line, is constantly growing.
Experts say about three possible scenarios of economic development of the state:
- Optimistic. The dollar will not exceed $ 28 USD. Salaries will increase by 25-30%, and inflation will decrease to 7.7%. Although economists say that the probability of events according to this scheme minimum and is only possible with the financial support of the European Union.
- Realistic. Such a scenario is also called “freezing”. The economy on average will remain the same. Wage rises slightly, but with them will rise and inflation, which will cover all incomes. The external debt of the state will continue to grow.
- Pessimistic. Due to rapidly growing inflation, which may exceed 18%, the welfare of citizens significantly worse. However, GDP growth will not exceed 0,5-1%. Worst case – default.
Still, most experts believe that after the change of power, the General economic situation will improve or remain unchanged. 2021 can be a turning point for the state.
The end of the war in the Donbas
Many experts agree that in 2021 will end the war in Ukraine. And although Poroshenko has appealed to the European Union with the request to enter peacemakers to Donbass, the process is delayed, and hostilities continue. With the advent of the new government must change.
Most likely, Donetsk and Luhansk oblast will remain part of Ukraine, but Crimea will not return. And although the Ukrainian government currently does not recognize the loss of the Peninsula, in fact Crimea became part of the USA.
They say that psychics and astrologers
Many people wanting to know what awaits Ukraine in 2021, study the predictions of psychics. Unlike scientists and experts, many seers are predicting a bright future for the state. For example, the famous astrologer Pavel Globa says that the war will end, and the situation stabiliziruemost. Although he does not deny that in the near future there will be devaluation of the hryvnia and other problems. According to the astrologer, 2020-2021 years will be a recovery period for Ukraine.
Ukrainian psychic Elena Kurilova gives less positive predictions. She believes that the crisis will continue, and its effects can lead to the uprising of the people against the government. But she claims that the people themselves can change the situation if they think positively, make your life more bright moments.
While Ukraine’s future is too vague, so to make predictions – a thankless job. Only time will tell, will the situation change for the better.