Most experts agree that you should not expect any price increase of gasoline in 2021. Fuel is unlikely to overcome a mark in 50 rubles per liter and must not exceed the rate of inflation. The main reason for such stability – the government will create a buffer of protection against the price spikes.
The government’s forecasts
According to the publication of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, the budget takes into account the inflation rate of 3%. This is the limit for the rise in price of gasoline from January 1, 2021. Moreover, in December 2020 Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak has published its own forecast of prices. The article in the journal “Energy policy”, he pointed out that the rising cost of fuel will lag behind inflation. The words of the Minister of energy, confirmed by the experts of Antimonopoly service, in particular the Deputy head of FAS Anatoly Golomolzin, using data from Rosstat for the year 2020:
- As of October, the gasoline and diesel oil rose by 2.7%. The inflation rate was 3.7%-4%.
- Diesel fuel became more expensive by more than 1% in January. In subsequent months, prices only decreased.
- The cost of A-92 was down for nearly six months, A-95 and A-98 – a couple of months during 2020.
Alexander Novak also recommends that you do not pay attention to the jump in oil prices in 2021 and worry about why gas is expensive. The basis for such confidence – damping mechanism. This measure helps to stabilize the cost for compensation to oil companies from the state. In fact, the Russian government pays for lost profits if the fuel abroad is more expensive than on the domestic market: 68% for gas and 65% for diesel.
Such measures have a downside. If companies artificially inflate prices, the profit shall be withdrawn and remitted to the Treasury.
Forecasts of experts
Financial specialists from various fields offer conflicting predictions. One thing they agree – the rise in price of gasoline will be in 2021, but whether this worry is unclear. On the one hand experts of the Ranepa and the Gaidar Institute has offered an infographic with the price forecast up to 2024:
According to her, is expected to increase prices up to 7%, compared to November 2020. This jump is associated with a new tax on associated gas. This component is dissolved in a natural oil and is used to create a high-octane types of fuel. However, the cost of raw materials is on average only of 6.87% in gasoline prices. A new tax on extraction of mineral resources should not lead to dramatic changes.
Concern is another increase in excise taxes on gasoline, which should trigger a rise in price from 1 January 2021. However, Dmitry marinchenko, the expert rating Agency Fitch, says that given the damping mechanism of the effect of innovations will be smoothed. So the export duty for oil refineries will be reduced for the end-consumer price growth in the country will be unobtrusive within 1%.
Principal analyst at Independent fuel Union George Bazhenov was also of the opinion that given the agreements between the government and oil companies should not expect any abrupt jumps. It is connected primarily with the social crisis caused by the unstable situation in the fuel market in Russia in 2018. After the negative public reaction on price hikes, the government is trying by any means to smooth over the situation.
That’s why after the price increase since December 2020 and January 2021, we can hope for stabilization of prices for gasoline and the rise in inflation. As for the actual inflation indicators, which bind their experts, here the changes are not expected. According to the independent rating Agency APAKAN the maximum possible price increase will not be higher than 4.75%.
The penalty for underfilling
In addition to direct measures to control prices for gasoline, the government has prepared a bill which would further improve the quality of life of drivers. The Ministry has proposed from 1 January 2021 to toughen the penalty for underfill of fuel at filling stations. But the initiative was rejected in connection with the development of a new Cao.
According to the data from inspections every 5 gas station netrivet up to 15% of gasoline buyers.
In 2021, the penalty amounts under part 1 of article 19.19 of the administrative offences code of 50-100 thousand rubles, and cannot be used as a deterrent measure. If the bill is approved, then in 2021 the amount of the financial penalty will increase to 1% of last year’s profits, a minimum of 500 thousand rubles. Repeated violations, it will be 3% and 2 million rubles.
However, the expert George Bazhenov believes that in addition to the positive impact this law will be the basis for new corrupt schemes. Therefore, the owners of small gas stations should be careful, given that during inspections potential errors. As a result of the introduction of the law of the gas stations will simply cease to exist.
How much more expensive gasoline in 2021: video