People who are planning the purchase of housing, can not agitate the question of a more expensive flat in 2021 or the next expected local price bottom, than you can use to save money when buying their own square meters. Similar information can also be useful to those consumers who want to buy real estate loans, as of the value of the object depends directly on the size of the down payment and the total amount of the overpayment. However, as experts predict, given a number of factors, we can assume that if prices rise in 2021, to carry out the sale of the apartment would be difficult in view of the decreasing purchasing power of citizens due to a reduction of the size of their monthly income.
Real estate dynamics is determined by a number of economic factors, which will depend on the prices of apartments in 2021. In particular, you should consider:
- The coming decline of purchasing power due to rising VAT, inflation and the rising costs of all product groups. Citizens need more and more money on daily expenses while maintaining the same salary level, therefore there is no possibility to postpone and save money to purchase housing. Thus, even a high demand for square meters will not contribute to the increase in sales in the real estate market, and many sellers will lower the prices of apartments to achieve them.
- The increase in the number of failures of banks on mortgage applications and a decline in issuance of these loans. After the increase in Central Bank current interest rate, the bankers were forced to review the current conditions of the programs and increase the cost of the borrowed funds. Accordingly, the average consumer almost lost the opportunity to acquire housing on credit and demand in the property market immediately declined. During the boom of consumer credit available mortgages only contributed to the rise in prices for apartments that will not be observed in 2021, if the Bank rate will remain at the same level or the Central Bank again will increase the value of the key rate. And will not save the situation, funding for state programs on support of preferential categories of citizens which need improvement of housing conditions, in view of the relatively small scale of such transactions.
- A key factor in the pricing remains the geographical location of the housing. In this regard, we can assume that even if under favorable conditions, expensive apartments in SPb and in 2021 in other regions prices may remain the same. While the price tag may differ and one city, for example, in a prestigious area of the apartments, as a rule, sold more expensive, which is not the square metres on the outskirts.
- The volume of new buildings, which are nearing completion or ready-to-use has declined significantly, but it is more characteristic of the region, while b and e observed a high activity builders as the primary market there is a clear predominance of demand over supply. Here it is also worth noting the tightening of the relevant legislation (contribution), as after the adoption of such legal norms, the number of players in the real estate market decreased significantly.
What apartments in 2021
Given the current situation in the economy, it can be assumed that in 2021 the real estate prices reach the next local bottom, especially as for several years there has been a clear trend of reducing the cost of square meters. In the foreseeable future, there is no explicit prerequisites for the growth of welfare of citizens, in connection with which the volume of supply is gradually increasing on the background of demand reduction, which affects the pricing.
Despite the decline in demand, sellers of resale properties are not always ready to make concessions and often refuse to sell, preferring to wait for more favorable implementation conditions. But according to analysts, they will come very soon, as indicated by the deterioration in the economy.
When can we expect a price growth
If sellers are concerned, a more expensive apartment in 2021, the buyers are hoping to reduce their cost, and they are much more likely to wait for the right moment to conclude the transaction. Given the combination of factors, experts agree that next year the cost of housing will subside and it is possible that this situation will occur until 2023. The only exception is in the case, if the Russian economy will be able to successfully overcome the crisis phenomena which immediately affect the level of welfare of citizens. Due to the increase in demand and volume of Bank lending, property prices will increase slightly, however, even in this favorable scenario, the growth will not exceed 5-7%.
A more realistic forecast is the rising cost of housing closer to 2024. But in this scenario it is not necessary to count on sharp increase in prices, despite the presence of a stable demand for square meters. Likely to first occur only adjustment to fair value on the inflation rate or the sellers will recalculate the invoiced price tags with the value of the currency, which by this time can significantly increase.