Analysts of the largest Russian banks, international financial groups and research centers, and independent financial experts have published forecasts for the European currency. Their opinions converge, something radically opposite. So what will happen to the Euro in the winter of 2020-2021 year? What to prepare consumers?
Factors of influence
According to economists, this winter on the exchange rate will be influenced by the following external factors:
- The price of oil in the international market.
- High inflation in the country.
- Possible changes to rates by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
- The political situation and the crisis associated with it.
- The budget deficit.
- Instability in the EU.
Predictions from Russian banks
Forecast of the Euro for the winter 2020-2021 years from leading banks of Russia optimistic. Analysts financial institutions do not exclude a small price increase by the end of December, but further believe that the cost of the European currency will decline.
- Financiers VTB consider that in January-February, 2021 th Euro drops to 69-71,3 RUB In Sberbank of the Russian Federation predicted a similar outcome year: in December 2020, the European currency will not rise above 69 rubles.
- The financial experts of Gazprombank in solidarity with colleagues, and in the long term, promise the depreciation of the Euro. Moreover, this reduction will be constant during the next year.
- Encouraging applications come from the experts of Rosselkhozbank: according to their estimates, in 2021, 1 Euro will give 65 RUB.
- URALSIB Bank confirmed downward trend, but with a caveat. According to banking analysts, in early January, the cost of 1 Euro will be 70 rubles.
In the first December week basic monetary unit in the EU show a slight rise – it will rise in price in absolute terms will be no more than 1 RUB. On the second week of December I will reduce the price expected to decrease by 2. During the second half of the month the European currency will rise in price – the price will rise within several days, and then stop. At the end of the month it will be 68-69 RUB.
January will begin with a holidays – in the foreign exchange market in the first week it is expected the relative calm and stable exchange rate European currency will hold at around 68,4 RUB In the future, experts predict a decline to 67.5-68 RUB.
In the second half of January is indicated by a trend on the rise. The minimum value of 70.6 rubles. for 1 Euro, the maximum is 72.5 RUB the Average cost for the month will amount to 2.6%.
February will be more stable. In its early days, the financiers expect the price to 71 rubles. for 1 Euro – the stability continue almost to the end of the month. If the fluctuations and indicated by a little – at the level of 0.7%. Half of the analysts believe that February will close with the decline of the Euro on average by 3%. During the month of possible fluctuations in the range of 68.8-65,8 RUB.
Western financiers consider the position of the Euro/ruble is more skeptical and pragmatic. They estimate that next year we should expect fluctuations of high intensity. Voiced figures 76-77,5 RUB for 1 Euro. Reduce the cost, they do not exclude, but only in early spring and only up to 73 rubles. per unit. By the end of 2021 the Russian national currency will strengthen the position – the price will stay at around 68-69 RUB.
About half of the respected analysts from abroad have no doubt that in December 2020 will be a leap in the cost of the European currency to the level of 90 rubles. per unit. And in January-February, 2021 th, she surpass 100. the Reason they are called the events occurring recently in the world, the tense international situation.
The political factor determines the course
Foreign experts confirm the political motives underlying the formation of the course: economic sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, negatively impact the situation.Raw binding in a financial context is also marked. Specific gravity of Russia in total the volume of oil supplies to the world market decreases. There are objective factors, among which the IMF forecasts regarding the potential of the EU. Experts of the International monetary Fund in their reports, indicate the growth of European capabilities. It will be 1.7-2% and will strengthen the single currency of the EU.
The opinion of independent analysts
Their model predictions will manifest and the authors of financial websites, the Agency’s prediction. Independent opinions available in the public domain, vary with official Bank forecasts.
Specialists web resource CoinLeo believe that at the beginning of 2021, the European currency will rise to 78 rubles. In late February-early March the price will slowly start to decrease.
The experts are reputable economic agencies “Apakan” forecast the price of the Euro in the winter of 2020-2021 year more hopeful. Experts claim that surges, fluctuations and rapid growth of the European currency should not be afraid. This winter, the cost of 1 Euro will not exceed 70 rubles. “Apakan” engaged in economic analysis for more than 10 years, calculations and projections on them, often turn out to be accurate. If the error exists, it is small.