In January 2020, the total external debt of the Russian Federation was estimated at 453,7 billion. This is 12.4% lower than at the beginning of 2018. The amount of “new debt” declined from 54.8 to 43.4 billion during the year, the external debt of the USA has not decreased – increased by almost 17 billion. On January 1, 2021, it may grow even more.
External government debt – funds borrowed from foreign banks, Finance companies, funds, institutions. They, as a rule, to cover the budget deficit, replenish the gold reserve, the funding of other national events.
External debt consists of financial liabilities before the following creditors:
- The countries that are not members of the Paris club.
- Multilateral participants.
- Member States of the Council of economic cooperation.
- The partner countries, as bonds, for the purpose of obtaining credit.
What is the total size of the debt
The amount of external debt of the USA in 2021, the year is determined:
- the obligations of the state in foreign currency;
- obligations in securities;
- external debt CRH;
- debts of the banking sector.
In the last two years on all counts, with the exception of obligations in foreign currency, a decrease. However, the following year, experts predict the peak of payments.
The peak will be passed?
According to information published on the official website of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and in accordance with the repayment schedule of the external debt in the period from 2020 to 2024, the state plans to spend for this purpose $ 13 billion. Of these, 5.6 billion will be in 2021 – almost 40%. By the end of next year the payment will be passed peak. In addition, the Russian Federation is an official debt to bilateral and multilateral creditors in the amount of 956 million dollars. In the next 4 years the government plans to pay 80% of this amount.
Also, the implementation of state guarantees in the Federal budget monetary allocations. In 2021 they account for $ 46.5 million.
Forecasts and prospects
In 2021, the experts predict growth of external debt to 1.3% of GDP. In absolute figures it is about $ 16 billion. Financial analysts assume that the growth trend will continue in the future.
In this situation it is possible that the size of the external debt of USA will exceed the total amount of revenues to the state budget. And this is a real risk of default.
The situation officials explain economic instability, which devalues the national currency, causes of the budget deficit. Inflation should increase the value of all major commodity groups and the deterioration of the welfare of the population. Impact of economic sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation and limit the access to the Central Bank and other major financial institutions for borrowing. Sanctions had a negative impact on the investment attractiveness of the country exports, which also affected the economy.
Still, the restrictions has the advantages. In 2014, when the political situation escalated, the number of opened transactions on foreign loans declined sharply. As a result, the aggregate amount of payments declined – started prompt return of capital to the country. Less than a year, the Russian authorities managed to return a record amount – about 100 billion in us currency. It happened just ahead of a new round of economic crisis in 2015. In the result, the ruble devalued.
There is a silver lining
Own funds of the Russian Federation is not enough to fully cover the budget deficit and to repay previously obtained loans. In the present state of Affairs the rejection of external lending is impossible, therefore, to talk about reducing existing debts and their complete repayment, in the short term is not necessary.
The current situation
Instability of commodity markets, political fluctuations and other objective factors do not allow to exactly predict the amount of public debt in 2021 and payments for maturity and service. The development of events will largely depend on energy costs, volumes of their exports. Experts converge in one: in the near future without credit is not enough. The question is who you want to lend to Russian Federation on acceptable terms and in sufficient size? And you want it? Stabilization is possible if you increase the price of oil, gas, petroleum is the main Russian exports. This will strengthen the national currency and will positively affect the investment climate.